Hustle Plays
As the clock runs out on another failed Iowa basketball season, the culprit is unmistakable.
You can’t say they aren’t talented.
The beauty of being an Iowa fan — being a fan of an athletic department allergic to changing coaches in virtually all major sports — is that you get a gigantic sample size as comparison. And by those measures, you can’t say this Iowa men’s basketball team isn’t any less skilled than the best teams of the Fran McCaffery era.
The Hawkeyes are shooting at a 56.3% effective rate, which is the second-best effective shooting percentage of any Iowa team ever. Only the 1987-88 squad shot at a higher effective percentage.
That number is driven largely by Iowa’s two-point shooting. The 56.3% shooting percentage on two-point attempts is the highest of the McCaffery era, including teams with Luka Freakin’ Garza. In fact, this team is the best two-point shooting team in the history of Iowa basketball, even better than the early Tom Davis teams and the best Lute Olson squads from the early 80s.
Moreover, the Hawkeyes’ 37.6% rate from behind the arc is similar to the three-point rate of McCaffery’s best squads; the 2021 team shot 38.6%, but every other season is at or below that rate.
Assist rates remain near a record high. More than 60% of Iowa made field goals come from an assist, the best rate since 2021.
Even with that ball movement, Iowa’s turnover rate remains historically low, as it has for the last five seasons. Just 14% of Iowa possessions end in a turnover, and just 8.6% end in a steal.
Iowa’s offensive efficiency is 118. That’s the lowest post-pandemic for a McCaffery squad, but only marginally, and good for 34th in the nation.
It’s easy to look at those numbers and assume that the Hawkeyes’ middling record comes from ineptitude on defense. And, yes, this team is bad defensively, the worst since 2018 and third-worst of the McCaffery regime. However, Fran’s squads haven’t relied on defense in nearly a decade; the last team to finish the season in the national top 30 in defensive efficiency was 2015-16. Iowa has won plenty with middling defense since that time.
The reason this team has struggled so mightily isn’t only defense. Rather, Iowa’s failure this season has stemmed from the less-skilled portions of the game, with or without the ball:
Iowa is 313th nationally (last in the Big Ten) in offensive rebounding, tracking down just 25.3% of their own misses. They’re not much better at rebounding the other team’s errant shots, either, ranking 291st nationally (last in the Big Ten) in defensive rebounding rate.
The Hawkeyes don’t get to the free throw line, ranking 338th nationally (last in the Big Ten) in free throw attempts per field goal attempt. That’s probably fine, because despite being a top-notch shooting outfit, Iowa manages just 70.5% at the free throw line, which is 242nd nationally (but at least ahead of Washington and Minnesota in the B1G).
You know how Iowa is setting a program record in two-point shooting? Opponents are shooting at exactly the same rate, 56.3%, on two-point attempts. That’s 345th in the country, and — you know what’s coming — last in the Big Ten.
Rebounding. Free throws. Interior defense. These are the hustle plays in basketball, the things that high school coaches harp on as the watchwords of mental and physical toughness. You and your teammates might not be the most talented bunch, but if you box out, close out shooters, keep opponents out of the paint, and make your free throws, you’ll have a chance in most games. They’re the things that are better with toughness, that can be most easily improved through hard work and repetition on the practice court. They’re also the things that so many old-school Big Ten programs — and so many beloved Iowa squads — were built on. And Iowa is bad — once-in-a-lifetime bad — at all of them, all at once.
They’re also likely the reason why watching this team is so often rage-inducing, and why this team hasn’t connected with the fan base. On paper, McCaffery’s reliance on local kids and legacy recruits should be gold; after all, what child of the 1990s doesn’t want to watch Chris Kingsbury’s son and J.R. Koch’s son resurrect the memories of their fathers? What red-blooded Iowan can’t appreciate a bunch of kids from Moline, Waukee and Council Bluffs going up against the big boys? But when those players give up five shot attempts in a defensive possession, or leave yet another cutter wide open to the rim, or miss the front end of a crucial one-and-one, it saps the fans of that internal momentum. It gives the wrong impression, that this team isn’t playing hard, or isn’t practicing the fundamentals, a perception only furthered by the weirdly zen McCaffery on the sideline.
This is the last week of Iowa’s season. Senior Night is going to come at the end of a blizzard, as if the season ticket holders needed further reason to stay home again. In a best-case scenario, the team might sneak into the Big Ten Tournament, where their stay will likely be brief, at which point all conversation will shift to whether McCaffery is returning next year. But when we look back at the failures of this season, with one of the most skilled group of offensive players this program has ever had, the criticism will begin and end with the hustle plays.
Respectfully, and strongly, disagree. Saying the likes of Sandfort, Dix, Thelwell, and others are not hustling is just wrong. Batshit wrong, narrative-seeking wrong.
First, Iowa has been playing undersized since they moved Dembele out of the starting lineup. Playing an in athletic 6’7” guard at SF and 6’7” player at PF is can account for large portion of lack of rebounding and free throws.
Sandfort is possibly the least athletic player in the B1G, and he still rebounds well for a “guard.” But his lack of handle and hops (and propensity to jack jumpers from everywhere) is always going to mean he’s an uber-low FT getter. His lack of lateral mobility and hops is always going to limit his ability to contest 2 pointers, whether jumpers or shots at the rim.
Dix is great. No issues with him. He fits at SG. Same with Thelwell.
But Harding is tiny and, while quick, not a great leaper. He’s not going to draw fouls, and he’s not going to challenge jumpers from 6’3” guards.
Dembele is ground bound and not especially long. He’ll have similar difficulties. Evan Brauns and Riley Mulvey seem like good guys but anyone arguing they’re good B1G players doesn’t see the game the same way I do. For better or worse.
And on and on. The Hawkeyes players themselves are under-athletic and under-sized. That’s going to make it hard to do all the things you claim are a lack of effort. And I think it’s largely why a program that has been largely “mid” at OR% and FTA/FGA has been outright bad this year.
Finally, Fran’s systems also affects these things. They are a motion system that relies on guys moving away from the ball and cutting to corners and open elbow 15-20 ft from the basket. This results in gorgeous open long 2s (which are good shots) and 3s, but implying someone running under the basket towards a corner is not trying because they weren’t in a position to offensively rebound seems wrong.
Further, a team that takes so many jump shots is always going to have fewer free throws. That’s why Fran’s teams in the past have always had a good post player and a perimeter player who can drive to offset that on their own. Tony Perkins, Ben Krikke, Filip Rebraca, Luka Garza, Joe Toussaint, and on.
Drew Thelwell is actually that player this year, with his highest Foul-drawn rate of his career, but there’s no one else. Dembele, Sandfort, Dix, they’re all jump shooters. It’s not lack of effort, it’s lack of handle and in the first two, lack of athleticism. I guarantee Josh Dix is going to be told he needs to intentionally draw more fouls when he does his NBA thing this Spring and summer. Not because he’s lazy or not trying, but because when you’re that good at making shots, why intentionally run into a guy?
Further, I don’t remember where or when, but I know I’ve heard on a broadcast that Fran et al. have told players that if they’re on the perimeter they need to hustle back to stop transition rather than fight for rebounds.
It’s systemic. It’s purposeful. Fran prefers good offensive, non-turnover players over athletic chaotic defensive-minded players. Chris Tadjo would have helped the rebounding a lot, but it’s clear Fran didn’t trust him on offense. He probably would have drawn more fouls, too, just by virtue of being stronger and more athletic.
Fran’s teams have always had these issues - on purpose - it’s just exacerbated this year, not by guys not hustling, but by guys being a) smaller, b) less athletic, and c) less skilled. I know that’s not as fun as saying “God, those lazy SOBs,” but it’s probably closer to the truth.