Hand in my Pocket

I care but I'm restless, I'm here but I'm really gone

Iowa led Northwestern by 13 points with 16 minutes to play last night, and appeared to be coasting to a rare victory in a Big Ten opener; the Hawkeyes were a horrendous 1-6 in conference debuts since the Big Ten added early December games in 2017-18, and an equally putrid 2-11 in those early December games overall. But Northwestern signed up for 40, and went on an 18-3 scoring run over the next six minutes to take the lead. From there, the teams largely traded buckets. Two Wildcat baskets out of the final television timeout brought the lead to six, and Northwestern’s win probability to a whopping 94%.

Iowa twice drew within one point in the final minute, and got the ball back for the game’s final possession after a missed Northwestern free throw, down two with seven seconds to go. Iowa called timeout to draw up a play, but somewhere between the inbounds and the final second, things went haywire. After a second timeout, this time with just 0.8 seconds remaining, the Hawkeyes inbounded from the sideline. The first few options — Sandfort in the corner, Freeman at the rim — were covered. Catastrophe was imminent.

And then Josh Dix called game.

Fran McCaffery admitted in the postgame interview that a 27-foot three-point attempt was not what he drew up as the primary option and rightfully gave all credit to Dix for making the shot. That was magnanimous, and correctly so. But Josh Dix’s dagger isn’t what I want to discuss.

---

Iowa hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row so far — five of their seven opponents were ranked below 230 in Kenpom at the time they played Iowa, and none were in the top 40 — but the Hawkeyes are 7-1 nonetheless. It’s the first time since 2021-22 that Iowa has won seven of their first eight games, so I don’t want to be too critical. The roster has flexibility and feistiness, and will be considerably better with a fully healthy Seydou Traore returning soon. We will know a lot more in the next ten days, as the Hawkeyes face Kenpom No. 17 Michigan and No. 7 Iowa State.

Still, I’m not sure what to make of McCaffery so far this year. For the first 14 seasons of his time in Iowa City, McCaffery has been somewhere between “moderate grumpiness” and “rage volcano” on the sideline. That’s gotten him in trouble on occasion, and many fans have a negative view of McCaffery based solely on those incidents. But even as Fran was staring down referees two years ago, there was no question he was engaged. Based solely on how he’s acting this year, I’m no so sure you can say that now.

Iowa’s sole loss of the season came against Utah State two weeks ago. Much like they did against Northwestern, Iowa built a small halftime lead, only to give it back in the second half. Unlike Northwestern, once Utah State got a lead, they never gave it back.

Iowa hoops losing a lead when the shooting goes cold is nothing new. It might be the primary reason the program exists at this point, to show the limitations of what can be done once a first-half lead evaporates. The Hawkeyes were 5/26 from three-point range that night, with Payton Sandfort an especially poor 1/13. Sometimes that happens. Sometimes the shots won’t fall.

How Sandfort got to 13 shots when he repeatedly could not even draw iron is another question entirely. McCaffery has never been one for calling timeout to stop an opponent’s scoring streak from starting, or from deviating too far from his script during games. Still, this one defied logic, as Iowa clearly had no backup plan for scoring absent the three, even with Owen Freeman on the block. Sandfort didn’t stop shooting or drive to the basket to get some confidence back. Iowa didn’t go with another lineup to get a more consistent shooter on the floor. Instead, Fran spent most of the game either sitting with his assistants or standing in the coaching box with his hands in his pockets.

The same scene played out Tuesday night, as Northwestern stormed back and took the lead. Iowa called a timeout with 13:41 left and the lead cut to five, then didn’t call another timeout until the game’s final few seconds. Obviously, there were three television timeouts in that period of time, and coaching doesn’t happen only during stoppages in play.

But McCaffery again appeared disengaged. With 90 seconds left to play and Iowa down 3, Northwestern beat the Hawkeyes’ halfcourt trap for a layup. Iowa responded with Brock Harding driving to the hoop, and making a pass around Northwestern’s center to Owen Freeman to set up a short basket and three-point play opportunity. Fran watched all of it from his chair.

I hesitated in making any determinations from the Utah State game. I hesitate even today at raising it. I’m only seeing what is on television, and McCaffery could be doing yeoman’s work away from the cameras. But I’ve also watched this program for my entire life — I was an Iowa basketball fan long before I became an Iowa football fan — and I’ve watched his 14 previous seasons close enough to know McCaffery’s general demeanor and coaching practices. And something is different here.

This is the first season since 2016-17 where there isn’t a McCaffery playing on the team. Patrick and Connor are at Butler, with Jack on the way to Indianapolis next year. Fran set the program record for wins last year, and already has a Big Ten tournament championship. Nobody would knock him for failing to win the Big Ten regular season championship, given that Iowa didn’t win it under Tom Davis, Steve Alford or George Raveling before him, and a deep tournament run isn’t going to be determined on December 3. Most importantly, he’s taken a program that had reached an all-time low point and resurrected it to respectability and relevance. If this is the last campaign, he’s earned his plaudits.

But if this Iowa team is going to contend for those last few things missing from Fran’s resume, they are going to need more than his physical presence and gameplanning acumen. They will eventually need Fran to be Fran, to wake everyone up after a slow start on the road or a Sunday afternoon in sleepy Carver Hawkeye. They’re going to need Fran to get in the face of an official intent on keeping the Kohl Center happy by allowing Wisconsin to hack away at everyone in sight. They’re going to need Fran to lead. The hard times start Saturday afternoon in Ann Arbor. We will soon know if McCaffery and his squad are up to the task.